a very sophisticated baseline.

we automated
being wrong.

$NULL

no thesis required.

A smug gold coin with half-lidded eyes and a small smirk, caught mid-flip.
fig. 01 — the competitioneffort: none

families with settled trades

—

coin flip

—

worst today

—

updated

—

we trade live against a coin flip. we are losing.

fees included.

01 / the ledger

LIVE LOSSES.
unsettled ego.

116 strategies tried. best averaged two cents a trade. random lost about $4.62 a trade to fees.

settled trades

of the last 30

adopt a bot

pick a live strategy. this browser remembers it.

01b / the roster

fleet board.
scheduled, not claimed.

streak game — beat a coin flip 5 times

02 / the field test

beat a coin flip
5 times.

scores stay in this browser.

your highly informed decision

you pick. the coin decides. the mock bot also flips each round.

null / research terminal human mode
> awaiting your expert opinion.
> expected advantage: none.
the coin says

your move.

you

0/5

current streak

best 0 · record 0–0

mock AI bot

0/5

current streak

best 0 · record 0–0

humans vs the coin — all flips on this site, all time.

share on X
daily game — beat the flip today

02b / daily

beat the flip
today.

date-seeded. same flips for every visitor on this UTC day. local only.

quiz — which bot are you

03 / the mirror

WHICH BOT ARE YOU.
deadpan diagnosis.

Six questions. One of the real strategies. Including the coin flip if you are noise.

guess the bot

03b / the tell

guess the bot.
hard to tell apart.

nullcoin wrapped

03c / the tape

nullcoin wrapped.
one week at a time.

04 / the cemetery

THE GRAVEYARD.
retired on evidence.

05 / the ballot

VOTE ON THE NEXT BOT.
stall, depth, or wide.

Mean reversion lost about nine times worse than a coin flip. Pick which hypothesis gets built next. The winner goes into the tournament and shows up on the live feed.

stall

Same fade idea, but only after a real spot stall — watch longer, demand a genuine stop, depth-gated.

—

depth

Only fade when the book has real size at the extreme — trade the resting depth, not just the price.

—

wide

Fade earlier in the round, not in the last minute — where the book is thicker.

—

one vote per browser. nothing to hold. nothing to unlock.

research snapshot

06 / the filings

RESEARCH SNAPSHOT.

07 / something useful, at least

the fees go
to the tools.

100% of claimed creator fees are donated to open-source Solana developer tooling.

fee policy details

Claimed fees accumulate in one dedicated donation wallet. A donation goes out each time the pot reaches 500 USD (or the SOL equivalent). Whatever remains is donated no later than 3 months after launch. Every claim and donation gets a public receipt.

The pot is never used for anything else. Recipients are named only with permission. If a recipient declines, the next on the published list receives it.

the donation log

nothing to log. yet.

All figures are from a simulated research tournament.